There are many men out there who claim to be ex-gay and if you take their word for it, they are.

You claim that they are in fact not really ex-gay.

For you to claim that of the thousands or perhaps millions of men who claim to be ex-gay, none of them really are ex-gay, well, the burden shifts to you.

It's up to you to convince your reader that it's probable that all self-proclaimed ex-gay people are in fact not ex-gay. You have not done so with me.

Your argument is that all of these men fit into one or a few categories, and that none of these categories are true "ex-gays." You haven't presented enough evidence that all or even almost all self-proclaimed ex-gay men fit into your category or categories.